前言

北京时辰凌晨4点，鲍威尔在达拉斯的演讲中示意“经济并莫得发出任何咱们需要急于缩小利率的信号”，这是他在通胀数据公布后初次提供对畴昔货币计谋的疏导/换取，天然在演讲稿中鲍威尔依然强调办事和通胀的风险趋于均衡，但在说起通胀时强调了2%的地方莫得被达到（not there yet），何况竭力于“完成这项处事”（committed to finishing the job）。

笔者的不雅感是，比较于9月/11月议息会议时的表态和姿态，鲍威尔隐微地把风险均衡从办事风险再度拨回了中间态。此前市集参与者并未把2%列为严格的需要被达到的通胀数字地方，但鲍威尔的表态看起来这是一项必须完成的任务，这大约与来岁5年一度的联储框架审查压力接洽。

另外，这种姿态变化明显不是大选的胜出者思要看到的……

演讲全文

Good afternoon. Thank you to the World Affairs Council, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, and the Dallas Regional Chamber for the kind invitation to be with you today. I will start with some brief comments on the economy and monetary policy.

公共下昼好。感辞宇宙事务委员会、达拉斯联邦储备银行和达拉斯地区商会的盛意邀请。领先，我将简要谈谈经济和货币计谋。

Looking back, the U.S. economy has weathered a global pandemic and its aftermath and is now back to a good place. The economy has made significant progress toward our dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices. The labor market remains in solid condition. Inflation has eased substantially from its peak, and we believe it is on a sustainable path to our 2 percent goal. We are committed to maintaining our economy's strength by returning inflation to our goal while supporting maximum employment.

追念曩昔，好意思国经济采选住了Covid偏激效果的磨砺，咫尺已收复到考究的状态。经济在完满充分办事和物价平稳的双重职责方面取得了首要进展。劳能源市集依然褂讪。通胀率已从岑岭大幅回落，咱们坚信，通胀率正朝着2%的地方捏续迈进。咱们竭力于通过使通胀率回到咱们的地方，同期支捏充分办事，来保捏咱们的经济刚劲。

Recent Economic Data 近期经济数据

Economic growth 经济增长

The recent performance of our economy has been remarkably good, by far the best of any major economy in the world. Economic output grew by more than 3 percent last year and is expanding at a stout 2.5 percent rate so far this year. Growth in consumer spending has remained strong, supported by increases in disposable income and solid household balance sheets. Business investment in equipment and intangibles has accelerated over the past year. In contrast, activity in the housing sector has been weak.

我国经济近期的发挥非常出色，是迄今为止宇宙主要经济体中发挥最佳的。旧年，经济产出增长了3%以上，本年到咫尺为止，经济增长速率达到了2.5%。在可欺诈收入增多和家庭钞票欠债表肃肃的撑捏下，破钞开销增长依然刚劲。曩昔一年，企业在建造和无形钞票方面的投资也在加快。与此相背，住房部门的步履却十分疲软。

Improving supply conditions have supported this strong performance of the economy. The labor force has expanded rapidly, and productivity has grown faster over the past five years than its pace in the two decades before the pandemic, increasing the productive capacity of the economy and allowing rapid economic growth without overheating.

供应条件的改善为经济的刚劲发挥提供了支捏。劳能源戎行连忙扩大，曩昔五年的分娩率增长速率朝上了Covid以前二十年的速率，擢升了经济的分娩材干，使经济在不外热的情况下快速增长。

The labor market 劳能源市集

The labor market remains in solid condition, having cooled off from the significantly overheated conditions of a couple of years ago, and is now by many metrics back to more normal levels that are consistent with our employment mandate. The number of job openings is now just slightly above the number of unemployed Americans seeking work. The rate at which workers quit their jobs is below the pre-pandemic pace, after touching historic highs two years ago. Wages are still increasing, but at a more sustainable pace. Hiring has slowed from earlier in the year. The most recent jobs report for October reflected significant effects from hurricanes and labor strikes, making it difficult to get a clear signal. Finally, at 4.1 percent, the unemployment rate is notably higher than a year ago but has flattened out in recent months and remains historically low.

劳能源市集的情景依然肃肃，还是从几年前较着过热的情景中冷却下来，从好多目标来看，当今还是收复到与咱们的办事任务相一致的改革常水平。咫尺，职位空白数目仅略高于好意思国休闲求职东说念主数。工东说念主的离职率在两年前达到历史高点后，当今已低于疫情前的水平。工资仍在增长，且速率更可捏续。与岁首比较，招聘速率有所放缓。10月份的最新办事阐明反应了飓风和歇工的首要影响，因此很难赢得明确的信号。临了，休闲率为 4.1%，较着高于一年前，但最近几个月已趋于沉稳，仍处于历史低位。

Inflation 通货彭胀

The labor market has cooled to the point where it is no longer a source of significant inflationary pressures. This cooling and the substantial improvement in broader supply conditions have brought inflation down significantly over the past two years from its mid-2022 peak above 7 percent. Progress on inflation has been broad based. Estimates based on the consumer price index and other data released this week indicate that total PCE prices rose 2.3 percent over the 12 months ending in October and that, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 2.8 percent. Core measures of goods and services inflation, excluding housing, fell rapidly over the past two years and have returned to rates closer to those consistent with our goals. We expect that these rates will continue to fluctuate in their recent ranges. We are watching carefully to be sure that they do, however, just as we are closely tracking the gradual decline in housing services inflation, which has yet to fully normalize. Inflation is running much closer to our 2 percent longer-run goal, but it is not there yet. We are committed to finishing the job. With labor market conditions in rough balance and inflation expectations well anchored, I expect inflation to continue to come down toward our 2 percent objective, albeit on a sometimes-bumpy path.

劳能源市集还是降温，不再是首要通胀压力的开始。这种降温以及更平淡的供应条件的大幅改善，使通胀率在曩昔两年中从2022年中期朝上7%的峰值大幅回落。通胀方面的进展具有平淡的基础。左证本周公布的破钞者价钱指数（CPI）和其他数据进行的估算标明，在抛弃10月份的12个月中，PCE总价钱飞腾了2.3%，裁撤波动较大的食物和能源类别，中枢PCE价钱飞腾了2.8%。不包括住房在内的中枢商品和服务通胀率在曩昔两年中连忙下跌，咫尺已收复到更接近咱们地方的水平。咱们瞻望，通胀率将连续在其最近的读数范畴内波动。不外，咱们正在仔细不雅察，以确保它们照实如斯，正如咱们正在密切追踪住房服务通胀率的冉冉下跌相似，这一通胀率尚未十足正常化。通胀率正冉冉接近咱们2%的长久处位，但还莫得达到。咱们竭力于完成这项处事。跟着劳能源市集情景的基本均衡和通胀预期的考究锚定，我瞻望通胀率将连续向2%的地方回落，尽管说念路随契机七高八低。

Monetary Policy 货币计谋

Given progress toward our inflation goal and the cooling of labor market conditions, last week my Federal Open Market Committee colleagues and I took another step in reducing the degree of policy restraint by lowering our policy interest rate 1/4 percentage point.

鉴于咱们在完满通胀地方方面取得的进展以及劳能源市集情景的降温，上周我和联邦公开市集委员会的共事们在缩小计谋敛迹（紧缩）进度方面又迈出了一步，将计营利率下调了25个基点。

We are confident that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the economy and the labor market can be maintained, with inflation moving sustainably down to 2 percent. We see the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals as being roughly in balance, and we are attentive to the risks to both sides. We know that reducing policy restraint too quickly could hinder progress on inflation. At the same time, reducing policy restraint too slowly could unduly weaken economic activity and employment.

咱们坚信，独一安妥调治咱们的计谋态度，经济和劳能源市集就能保捏刚劲，通胀率也能捏续下跌到2%。咱们合计，完满办事地方和通胀地方所靠近的风险大体均衡，咱们会海涵这两方面的风险。咱们知说念，过快地减少计谋敛迹可能会结巴通胀方面的进展。与此同期，过慢地减少计谋敛迹也会不安妥地松开经济步履和办事。

We are moving policy over time to a more neutral setting. But the path for getting there is not preset. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, we will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates. The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully. Ultimately, the path of the policy rate will depend on how the incoming data and the economic outlook evolve.

跟着时辰的推移，咱们正在将计谋转向愈加中性的设定。但完满这一地方的旅途并不是预设的。在辩论对子邦基金利率地方区间进行迥殊调治时，咱们将仔细评估收到的数据、不断变化的前程以及风险均衡。经济并莫得发出任何咱们需要急于缩小利率的信号。咱们咫尺看到的经济刚劲近况使咱们有材干严慎地作念出决定。最终，计营利率的走向将取决于新数据和经济前程的演变。

We remain resolute in our commitment to the dual mandate given to us by Congress: maximum employment and price stability. Our aim has been to return inflation to our objective without the kind of painful rise in unemployment that has often accompanied past efforts to bring down high inflation. That would be a highly desirable result for the communities, families, and businesses we serve. While the task is not complete, we have made a good deal of progress toward that outcome.

咱们仍然坚决地竭力于完成国会赋予咱们的双重职责：充分办事和平稳物价。咱们的地方是使通胀率回到咱们的地方，而不会像曩昔为缩小高通胀率所作念的竭力那样，伴跟着休闲率的上升而祸害不胜。关于咱们所服务的社区、家庭和企业来说，这将是一个非常理思的闭幕。天然任务尚未完成，但咱们还是在完满这一地方方面取得了很猛进展。

Thank you, and I look forward to our discussion.

谢谢，我期待着咱们的商讨

著作开始：智堡投研kaiyun.com，原文标题：《鲍威尔：不急于降息》

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